McKinsey estimates that healthcare profit pools will grow at a 7% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from $583 billion in 2022 to $819 billion in 2027. Of the expected total healthcare profit pools in 2027, the following sectors within the healthcare space are ranked from the greatest to least share of profit pools (measured as EBITDA):

  1. Provider – $366 billion
    • Within this space, the subsector of office-based physicians is estimated to grow the fastest at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% between 2024 and 2027, driven by site-of-care shifts
  2. Manufacturers – $217 billion
    • This space is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 5-10% between 2024 and 2027
  3. Services and Tech – $88 billion
    • Within this space, consulting, clinical services, data analytics, payment services, and the software/platforms subsectors are estimated to grow the fastest at a CAGR of over 10% between 2024 and 2027
  4. Payer – $78 billion
    • Within the payer space, fixed-benefit and supplemental, individual, and duals subsectors are estimated to grow the fastest at a CAGR of over 10% due to recovery of margins post-pandemic
  5. Pharmacy Services – $71 billion
    • Specialty pharmacy services and distributors are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 5-10% between 2024 and 2027

For additional details on expected growth rates and corresponding drivers of growth for individual subsectors, please refer to the complete article published by McKinsey in the subsequent link:

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare/our-insights/what-to-expect-in-us-healthcare-in-2024-and-beyond#/